Insights

Spot gold closed October at $1,783.38, gaining 1.50%. Gold managed to recover from the late September swoon that cleansed positioning and sent the entire precious metals complex into extremely oversold conditions. Gold may have priced in the Fed taper, but the yellow metal has yet to respond to the Fed’s inflation dilemma, which seems anything but transitory.

Overconfidence, complacency, recklessness and intoxication appear to characterize today's financial market zeitgeist. An unraveling of the market's speculative euphoria would constitute a near perfect environment for gold bullion and gold mining shares given that the fundamentals have rarely appeared more solid.

September’s end brought on a new season and a welcomed uptick in gold prices with a settle at $1,757 per ounce. While gold struggled for the month, its positive finish reflected the uncertainty of recent macroeconomic progress. Gold mining stocks were harder hit in September as markets appeared to be factoring in a price-side and cost-side margin squeeze.  

Gold closed August at $1,814 with a dramatic dip early/mid-month and a quick recovery. Improved July payroll job data gave traders reason to question whether the Fed will maintain its easy monetary stance. Gold sold off but regained support, helped at month end by the Fed's dovish tone at Jackson Hole. 

Gold bullion and gold mining equities gained ground in July. We saw a recovery in gold bullion investments as positions were repurchased and the decline in real yields to all-time lows added to the buying rationale. We believe that gold is well-positioned for a typical late summer/early fall rally, given record-negative real yields, a USD that may be topping out and waning taper/tightening fears.

June's gold selling was almost entirely a knee-jerk synthetic affair driven by algorithmic, headline scanning robotic macro funds. We believe the smackdown was a temporary reaction to the perceived change in the Fed's posture towards possible balance sheet reduction. In our opinion, gold and gold mining stocks are compelling buys and the investment rationale for precious metals exposure remains unscathed.

Gold and precious metals took a drubbing in June following the hawkish FOMC meeting that added two rate hikes to the dot plot. Chaos among most asset classes ensued and gold was unduly affected by the strengthening USD and rising real yields. This doesn’t change gold’s long-term fundamental tailwinds, given the unprecedented expansion and reach of monetary and fiscal policies, akin to a grand experiment.

2021 marks the 50th golden anniversary of the "Nixon Shock," when the world's reserve currency was last partially tethered to gold. Since 1971, gold has mostly managed to trounce fiat paper as a currency and the yellow metal has held its own as an asset class. After 35 years in the gold trade and with the benefit of my Sprott team of experts, I feel qualified to state that today's environment offers a stellar opportunity to gold investors. 

Gold's strong performance in May made up for the Q1 correction. Rising U.S. CPI data spooked markets, but helped boost gold and silver prices. As we head into summer (a seasonally strong period for the precious metals complex), we see several macro tailwinds working in our favor. 

With palladium trading near record highs, we revisit the drivers behind palladium’s rise. Overall, we see continued support for palladium prices, even at the higher levels they’ve touched post-COVID. Supply and demand fundamentals have once again come into focus.

April provided precious metals markets redemption from a challenging first quarter, with gold finishing the month up 3.60% and silver climbing 6.14%. Silver continues to benefit from expansionary monetary and fiscal policies worldwide and its key industrial role in the new technologies of the "green revolution." 
 

Gold prices finished March at $1,708, closing off a difficult quarter on the heels of gold's positive, record year. COVID-19 vaccine rollouts in the U.S. encouraged market optimism which was reflected in rising U.S. Treasury yields and a strong U.S. dollar. Despite the cheerier economic outlook, the long-term risks associated with trillions of dollars of economic stimulus, and mounting debt, provide ample support for our bullish metals outlook.  

Platinum prices have moved higher as COVID-19 has constrained supply amid rising demand. YOY, spot platinum is up more than 90%. Growing interest among investors for platinum's role as a store of value has also boosted prices. We examine how the global pandemic has impacted platinum supply and demand, and offer our bullish outlook.

For many U.S. investors the returns provided by owning physical gold — and the other precious metals including silver, platinum and palladium — come with a sobering surprise when the assets are sold and it’s time to pay taxes. The reason: The U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) categorizes gold and other precious metals as "collectibles" which are taxed at 28%. Most other types of long-term capital gains are taxed at 15%-20%.

February was a tough month for gold. Bond selling spiked into near panic mode and triggered a multi-asset sell-off into month-end. It was an uncomfortable replay of the 2013 Taper Tantrum in condensed form. Gold was not spared, but long-term trends remain in place for our bullish gold view.

Silver climbed more than 47% in 2020, reaffirming its value as a safe haven portfolio asset during the COVID pandemic. But our bullish outlook for silver is based on its unique role as an industrial metal. Silver should be integral to any "green revolution" discussions, given that it is critical to the success of EVs, solar energy and 5G cellular networks. We believe that silver demand will likely explode in the next 10 years, and we don't foresee supply growth keeping pace. 

Gold's unique attributes as a scarce, highly liquid, and un­correlated asset demonstrate that it can act as a diversifier over the long term. Gold's position as an investment and a luxury good has allowed it to deliver average returns of nearly 11% over the past 50 years, comparable to equities and more than bonds and commodities. Overall, extensive analysis suggests that adding between 2% and 10% of gold to a U.S.-dollar-based portfolio can make a tangible improvement to performance and boost risk-adjusted returns on a sustainable, long-term basis.

World Gold Council: "Our analysis suggests that gold stands apart from cryptocurrencies in general and Bitcoin in particular. Gold is an effective, tried and tested investment tool in portfolios. It has been a source of returns rivalling that of the stock market over various time horizons; it has performed well during periods of inflation; it has been a highly liquid, established market; and it has acted as an important portfolio diversifier, exemplifying negative correlation to the market during downturns. The recent performance of cryptocurrencies has been noteworthy, but their purpose as an investment seems quite different from gold."

Gold started the year strongly, reaching almost $1,960 before dropping quickly back to support above the $1,800 range. We have been long-term bullish on silver, which has surged to an 8-year high. The Reddit crowd may accelerate this silver rally to extreme levels, but we can continue to make a strong fundamental case for silver that does not require any short squeeze schemes (real or imagined). 

The fate of the stock market and the outlook for gold are more intertwined than most realize. Gold has been performing well, but its outperformance is a well-kept secret. If a general bear market sets in, more investors will embrace gold and gold mining stocks. In the meantime, macroeconomic and valuation factors continue to build in gold's favor.

2020 was a tremendous year for precious metals. Gold bullion gained 25.12%. Silver bullion rose 47.89%. Palladium climbed 25.86% and platinum increased 10.92%. Gold mining equities were up 21.96% and gold junior mining stocks rose 48.53%. We expect the precious metals rally to continue in 2021 and offer our Top 10 list for investors. 

As COVID spread in 2020, investors embraced gold and silver as portfolio protection. But the role of these metals extends far beyond this. We explore how precious metals are helping to medically combat the virus and identify several innovative disease-fighting applications that depend on gold, silver, platinum and palladium.

There are several macro-economic reasons why gold may make the perfect gift for the holidays....including the $18 trillion dollars of negative yielding debt in the world today, which is nearly equal to the size of the U.S. economy. Bonds are no longer a portfolio risk mitigator, and if you don’t hold some gold, silver and other precious metals assets, you should.

Investing in gold and silver mining companies is challenging but offers substantial rewards for investors with an edge. After two great performance years, in which gold mining equities outperformed the S&P 500 Index, these stocks are still relatively inexpensive. At Sprott, we rely on a broad team led by very experienced portfolio managers, in the fashion of a collective basket of mining DNA.

Gold prices have climbed sharply in 2020...The moves cap a year rocked by a pandemic that led to economic restrictions and fiscal stimulus measures, feeding the precious metal’s appeal as a haven investment. Sprott CEO Peter Grosskopf sees the recent pullback in gold as “a healthy correction and a buying opportunity” for investors.

Precious metals took a post-election pause in November. Gold bullion lost 5.42% but is up 17.11% YTD and 21.38% YOY through November 31, 2020. Silver bullion lost 4.28% in November but has risen 26.84% YTD and 32.99% YOY. The macroeconomic fundamentals remain intact to support a continuation of this year’s precious metals rally. We see this correction as an attractive yearend, seasonal buying opportunity. 

Tom Bodrovics, a host of Palisades Gold Radio, welcomes returning guest John Hathaway of Sprott. Hathaway says, “the setup for gold is so incredible. It's the best I've seen it in my 20 plus years of gold investing.” Hathaway explains why traditional portfolio weightings no longer work, given that bonds today are "return-free risk".  Gold can provide an alternative to bonds, and Hathaway explains how a relatively small move in the gold bullion price can have an outsized impact on gold miners' profit margins and the value of their stocks.

With building anxiety over the U.S. presidential election, investors stepped away from markets in October, including gold bullion and mining equities. The uncertainties of the election and COVID-19's surging second wave have created a "risk mitigation" type market. The gold bull market remains intact and both gold bullion and mining equities are well-positioned under most plausible election scenarios.

With gratitude for a career on Wall Street that has spanned more than 40 years, I have experienced plenty of history. Looking back for an analog to this past year, in many ways, 1968 was a year on par with 2020. As a society, we survived and were able to move forward and grow from the experience, and we benefitted from positive investment lessons learned in the aftermath of 1968. This too shall pass.

The current pullback in the precious metals sector is a buying opportunity. It is possible that gold and gold mining shares could continue to chop sideways-to-lower until the U.S. presidential election results are known and even into yearend as the implications are sorted out. We believe that now is the time to start layering in gold exposure, not when the rest of the world tries to do so.

Markets experienced the first post-COVID meaningful correction in September as investment fund exposures were reduced, resulting in a contraction in market depth and liquidity. Despite September's profit taking, gold bullion posted its eighth straight quarterly gain. We see this as a buying opportunity for precious metals investors.

After touching a record high of $2,075 on August 7, gold bullion closed August at $1,968. Despite this pullback, we see gold well supported above the prior cycle high of $1,900 as it settles into a sustainable $2,000-$2,200 trading level. Both silver bullion and gold mining equities reached multi-year highs in August.

Gold has powered over $2,000, and we take stock of what has been accomplished by the monetary metal and what may lie next. It has now been established as a baseline that a diversified asset portfolio must include an allocation to gold. No other liquid asset accomplishes what gold does in the way of portfolio insurance and purchasing power protection.

The economic fallout from COVID-19 has created a predictable headwind for jewelry purchases around the globe. However, given that jewelry is deeply rooted in cultural norms and traditions, we anticipate a healthy rebound in jewelry purchases over time, driven by the role that it plays in societies and a strong desire to resume “normal life” among most buyers.

The precious metals complex set off fireworks in July as gold bullion reached all-time highs. Silver bullion and gold mining equities broke through significant long-term resistance levels to further improve their bullish standing. Year to date, precious metals continue to outperform as gold has attained “escape velocity”, i.e., it has gravitationally moved away from other asset classes.*

Dr Graham Birch joined the Sprott Board of Directors and has in-depth experience in asset management, especially in precious metals, having been responsible for gold and mining investments at BlackRock in London. Graham has just written a book, "The Metal in Britain’s Coins – Where did it come from and how did it get here?", about the historical origins of the bullion in Britain’s coins, with lessons in it for those who wish to understand the importance of gold and silver as money in a world of paper currencies.

We believe that the macro forces for gold and gold mining stocks have coalesced into what may be one of the 'fattest investment pitches' of our time. A fat pitch is a momentary event, akin to catching a major trend change in the financial markets. Such opportunities do not come around often. They deserve serious consideration and expeditious response.

Gold bullion continued to deliver strong performance and was up 17.38% YTD through June 30, 2020, and 26.36% YOY. At the same time, gold mining equities have gained 25.88% YTD, and 44.00% YOY as of June 30. This compares to -3.08% YTD and 7.51% YOY returns for the S&P 500 TR Index. Silver posted strong gains in June and is on the move again; silver is up 1.99% YTD and 18.88% YOY as of June 30.

Silver has been on the move since April, although it is still playing catch up to gold in this year’s precious metals rally.  We identify four long-term consumer-driven trends that are positively driving demand for silver, including solar energy, battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), 5G cellular connectivity and antimicrobial applications.

After a tumultuous past few months, every asset class appears to be normalizing, including gold bullion. Gold posted steady gains in May with a 2.6% increase. Gold is up 14.04% YTD through May 31, 2020, and 32.54% YOY. At the same time, gold mining equities (SGDM) have gained 18.26% YTD, and 61.70% YOY as of May 31. This compares to -4.97% YTD and 12.84% YOY returns for the S&P 500 TR Index. Silver also posted strong gains in May and is on the move again. 

Gold miners have climbed steadily, following the positive path we predicted back in November 2019.  As of April 30, 2020, gold mining stocks were up 11.01% YTD and 57.87% YOY, compared to -12.36% YTD and -7.91% YOY for the S&P 500 Index. In our view, gold mining equities still have a great deal of upside to offer, given that historically gold stocks tend to outperform the metal during gold bull markets (2-3x).

Gold equities broke out of a multi-year resistance level on massive buying flows in April. Gold miners may be experiencing disruptions due to COVID-19 pandemic shutdowns, but they stand to benefit from a rising gold price. Gold bullion is up +11% YTD and +31% year-over-year (through April 30, 2020). 

The silver market is in the throes of several changing trends as the COVID-19 pandemic upends the global economy. When the dust settles, we see a bullish case for silver prices, as investment demand ticks upward while supply constraints linger.

March 2020 will go down in history as one of the most tumultuous ever for capital markets. For the first time in over 100 years, a global pandemic has struck with devastating results. Gold continues to deliver strong relative performance and was up 3.95% on a year-to-date basis through March 31, 2020, compared to -19.60% for the S&P 500 TR Index. The need for a safe haven asset like gold, that represents a store of value during crises has never been greater.

Jason Mayer, Senior Portfolio Manager, recaps the past two weeks: "We were not surprised by the recent selloff in gold bullion and precious metal equities. During violent broader market corrections, liquidity is priority number one....the unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus in response to COVID-19 should debase fiat currencies while providing a tremendous tailwind for gold bullion and gold equities."

Read the latest intel on Palladium from the World Platinum Investment Council. The spectacular increase in the price of palladium since 2016, in particular during 2019, attracted widespread interest from investors, industrial users of palladium and market commentators. It also highlighted the importance of understanding the palladium market when considering an investment in palladium or platinum.

Whitney George reflects on markets and the COVID-19 crisis: "We are in a paradigm shift right now, one that may have taken us all a bit by surprise. I expect that central banks will shortly provide the liquidity required to settle the markets, an accomplishment that will be very favorable to gold."

We believe that gold provided what it should during times of crisis, a form of insurance to cash in when liquidity is required. We are comforted that throughout this "policy payout," gold has mimicked its performance in the GFC, during which it was first sold down by holders requiring funds for other purposes and then skyrocketed once liquidity was rebalanced and QE began in earnest. We believe that long-term investors, not subject to margin pressures, will be similarly rewarded by owning gold at this time.

We think gold has been sensing the endgame for Keynesian policy prescriptions, mainstream economic thinking and hyper-leveraged investment practices....At the moment, mining company valuations appear extraordinarily cheap. It is one of the few industries that will report solid year-over-year earnings gains for the remainder of this year and perhaps into the next. Buying low is never easy but now is the time to do it.

Hathaway: "Going forward, unless the Fed continues to expand its balance sheet, it risks a meltdown in equity and bond prices that could exceed the damage of the 2008 global financial crisis....With continued advances in gold prices in 2020, the return potential for gold mining shares — the still unloved orphans and pariahs of the investment universe — should prove to be very compelling."

2019 marked the best performance for the precious metals complex in nearly a decade. Gold bullion closed the year at $1,517 (gaining 18.31% for the 12 months). Silver bullion ended the year at $17.85 (up 15.23% in 2019). Platinum climbed 21.56% in 2019, and palladium soared 54.24%. Gold mining equities showed notable strength, finishing 2019 up 46.97% as measured by Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM).

Gold mining stocks have soared almost 30% so far in 2019, as of November 15. Over the last 12 months, the sector is up 40%. Some investors may assume that gold stocks have run their course. On the contrary, we think that the gold mining equities still have a great deal of upside to offer.

Gold bullion has seen a double-digit YTD advance in 2019, and gold mining equities have also posted notable returns. Tocqueville Asset Management's John Hathaway and Ryan McIntyre join Ed Coyne, Senior Managing Director at Sprott Asset Management, to discuss their outlooks and suggest the optimal gold portfolio allocation for most investors.

Given gold’s sharp rise since May, September’s correction was not unexpected. We believe it is reflective of a new consolidation phase, and likely to be short term in nature. All factors that we consider to be significantly correlating to gold bullion indicate that we are still in the early stages of a major long-term advance.

In our view, gold’s role as a non-correlating store of value has rarely offered more portfolio utility than it does today....The most troubling legacy of contemporary central banking has been the emergence of negative nominal interest rates. The fact that they actually exist, only highlights the dire nature of global financial imbalances. 

The debate over gold’s place in a modern investment portfolio has been well covered. Call it the “Pet Rock” versus the “End of Fiat Currency” grudge match. But the facts are not subject to such intense interpretation....An enormous transformation of the gold market can occur once digital gold attracts the volumes needed to make it a serious business.

July was positive for both gold and silver, which were propelled by the Fed’s interest rate cut on July 31, its first cut in 11 years. Any hope that this is a "one and done" rate hike has quickly been dashed with the latest U.S.-China trade war salvo. The long-term picture remains firmly intact. Gold and silver continue to rise as the market adjusts to a new central bank easing cycle.

Gold has moved above the critical $1,400 mark for the first time in nearly six years. We believe that gold may be decisively breaking out of a six-year cycle and that this may be the beginning of a powerful multi-year rally. It's an opportune moment for CEO Peter Grosskopf to share his guidance on gold investing.

A two month bitcoin rally has reignited the gold-versus-bitcoin debate. We view such either-or comparisons of gold and bitcoin as somewhat specious, because we see little commonality between the two assets. Gold continues to function as a reliable store of value and productive portfolio-diversifying asset. In contrast, bitcoin continues to augment its reputation as a highly erratic speculation. Bitcoin’s investment merits, at least to date, have proven distinctly different from gold’s portfolio utility.